Some of the most celebrated human characteristics – hope and courage -dramatically overcome obstacles and make great biographies, novels, and blockbuster movies. Unfortunately, these same bold moves in aviation are the fuel for most NTSB reports. Hope is a very bad flight planning tool, which combined with “too much courage” creates an – *almost drug-induced* – disregard for obvious risks. The cartoons call this “hopium.” The related mental visualization of how unrealistic expectations can lead to great success is called “magical thinking.” The NTSB retrospective analysis always shows these failings in clear hindsight. Pilots project improbable success when optimistic brain chemistry clouds their better judgment.
Hopium is a portmanteau of the words “hope” and “opium” used to describe a fictional drug to help one stay hopeful in times of stress. It is frequently used in reaction image macros featuring Pepe the Frog hooked to an oxygen tank labeled “hopium”.
Every aviator must avoid hopium to be safe. Instead, we need to embrace a tempered pessimism the Greeks called “stoicism.” A good pre-takeoff briefing is a recitation of all the things that may go wrong, in a detailed fashion (the “pre-meditation of evils“). This recitation builds awareness and prepares for the actions required to handle emergencies.
Though most take-offs (thankfully) go smoothly, a good pilot works hard to avoid developing complacency and completely automating every action. A good pilot is aware and code-yellow for each critical phase of flight. By being aware that the take-off is the most statistically dangerous part of every flight, the “automatic” handles a lot of details, while the metacognitive evaluates and adjusts the master performance (ready for anything). For longer flight planning or less defined mission uncertainty, consult a good friend and ask “Am I thinking straight here?” Kill all the “maybes” or develop safe alternates before departing.
The related silent killer in piloting, often mistakenly worshiped, is “automaticity.” Helpful habits are great, to a point, but real mastery requires habits completed with “aware execution” and subsequent “reflective improvement.” This is a skill called metacognition. A pilot may survive 10,000 hours doing things wrong (this is luck rather than hope), and many high-time accidents reveal a history of disregard for risks. The key to real 
mastery is highly trained and automatic execution combined with metacognition. This is the sharp mental awareness of the event and our actions as they are occurring from an observer’s viewpoint (thinking about thinking). Metacognition is the first level of Dr. Mica Ensley’s “situational awareness.” Failure in aware execution of tasks is where 72% of accidents occur. We have to be code yellow when we advance the power for take-off.
Lastly, the fat logbook, with lots of hours and ratings, all by itself is no guarantee of skill and mastery. The “10,000-hour rule” popularized by Malcolm Gladwell in his 2008 bestseller, Outliers, does not just mean simple repetition and automatic execution (or every machine would be “masterful”). To improve in any skill, repetition must be combined with awareness and constantly increasing standards. Complex tasks in a high-consequence environment, cannot be learned by trial and error. They require “optimal challenge” through careful educational intervention – guided discovery in the “struggle zone.” This is why “practice makes perfect” is a compelling educational fallacy.” It works for simple tasks but fails miserably for complex learning!
Though perfection is always out of reach, a master pilot is always working to improve and get better, through metacognitive awareness in the moment and reflective analysis after the fact. In the educational world, a master instructor provides this “optimal challenge” to each unique learner while also maintaining motivation (and hopefully fun). A good post-flight brief is a “reflective analysis” that should become a habit. The human dilemma of striving and constantly falling short of perfection can be frustrating – but also weirdly motivating too. Regarded correctly, the challenge of constantly striving for (unreachable) perfection also means there is always more to learn! Fly safely out there (and often)!
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