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Hypotheticals: The Importance of “What Ifs”

One of the most powerful aviation learning or teaching tools is mentally exploring hypothetical surprises that any pilot may realistically encounter (e.g. gravity works). Carefully rehearsing the “what ifs” builds an arsenal of ready reaction plans and the important habit of continual situational awareness. Complacency is a common human habit experienced in all activities, but in flying, it can get you hurt. I get a little edgy with pilots who become totally immersed in their “Starlink World” while on autopilot.

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For mental efficiency, our brain assumes the future will continually resemble the past. We live our daily lives based on stereotyped scripts from past actions. This is a huge subconscious expectation. Embedded in this model is the optimistic assumption that everything will keep working. Unfortunately, this habit can also be easily transferred to our flying. We assume the plane will perform perfectly, the weather will not change suddenly, and every pilot will be where they say they are in the non-towered pattern (if they talk at all).

“…smart people do some really stupid things from time to time. One of the reasons for this is the way the brain processes new information. It creates what I call behavioral scripts to automate almost anything we do…This system generalizes from previous experience…We create rules…so that we know how things ought to behave…We can’t see, or at least can’t comprehend, things for which we have no mental models. The efficiency that these mental scripts confer therefore comes at the expense of deliberate attention to real information…the model displaces the real world…” Gonzales

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So situational awareness is a rare skill for many pilots. Complacency and predictability are unrecognized causal factors when”stuff happens.” We inevitably react with surprise and panic, and have no plan. During the ensuing panic, we freeze up and react slowly if at all (“swimming in glue”). Creative mental rehearsal (the “what ifs”) is an amazingly effective antidote to complacency and builds both plans and the habit of vigilance. But to make this work effectively, we must engage in the simulation very seriously: “game on, no replay!” 

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If you are a CFI, presenting continuous challenges to your learners (after they are comfortable in the plane) builds this vigilance habit. They need to engage these hypotheticals on a very realistic level to get real value though: “what *exactly* would you do in this situation?” If a pilot has not considered all the places an engine can fail and what they would do (precisely, step by step) they will be a statistic and not a survivor. Continuous mental rehearsal is essential to pilot success and longevity. To this point, flight planning and pre-briefing should be; contextual, realistic, and vivid; Code Yellow.

Many new pilots are surprised when they fully grasp the extent of their privileges upon initial pilot certification. The day after their test, they (hypothetically) could fly the whole USA (and more) during day or night.  One of my pilots did this, circumnavigating the US shortly after certification. The “ACS litmus test” though is: “this is *FAA legal* but is it safe?”  If we do not mentally explore all these options – potential surprises and hazards-  as pilots and learners, we are woefully unprepared to pilot safely.

Another critical benefit of mental rehearsal (the “possibles”) is an increased sense of caution and more diligent planning. A dual training experience is the most effective here since it is difficult to actually “surprise yourself!” Adrenalin imparts advantages but also surprising difficulties when practice becomes real. Set hard decks and precise standards while practicing dual surprises to stay safe and avoid creating *real* emergencies. Fly safely out there (and often)!

Join us on Nov. 30th, at 8pm for a free SAFE Webinar on the new MOSAIC rules and the impact this will have on flight training.

Author: David St. George

David St. George. David took his first flying lesson in 1970. Flying for over 50 years, he began instructing full-time in 1992. A 26-year Master Instructor, David is the Executive Director of SAFE (The Society of Aviation and Flight Educators). He has logged >21K hours of flight time with >16K hours of flight instruction given (chief instructor of a 141 school with a college program for > 20 years). He is currently a charter pilot flying a Citation M2 single-pilot jet.

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